The Sports Betting Analytics Experiment

I've created this blog to create a record of an analytical experiment. Several years ago I began going to Vegas each March for the NCAA basketball tournament. I found that my professional analytical skills enabled me to have a significant edge in betting NCAA basketball games during "March Madness".

Over the past year I further refined a series of proprietary sports data metrics for college basketball that yielded a 76% win rate at the Wynn Sportsbook. Two additional enhancements raised that win percentage during back-testing of all 134 games of both the 2012 and 2013 tournaments to 81% (I know, the purely theoretical results don't count). Nonetheless I will be using this blog as a permanent record to document my attempt to convert my basketball expertise into college football.

If these experiments in college prove to be promising (anything greater than 59% success against published Las Vegas Sportsbook lines) then I will likely begin a foray into professional football metrics as well. It is one of my principal theories that there is a much wider performance variance in college sports than exists in professional sports. As a result of the disaprate performance variances, I believe it is much, much easier to beat the sportsbook in college sports rather than professional sports. In short, 18-22 year old men are much more prone to performance peaks and troughs than are 22-36 year old men who can focus exclusively on their careers. These performance peaks and valleys in college sports can be quantifed and measured against one another. This way of looking at sports betting is either never discussed or isn't being looked at by others.

As this blog develops and matures, I will not be divulging the specifics of my analytical approach. I will discuss general concepts behind my thoughts, however. The main intent of this blog will be to stand as a record for efforts to handicap college football in the fall of 2014. More to follow soon.

Jack