Time For A Dress Rehearsal ... And The Winner Is...
As I've stated many times previously in the blog posts below, it takes 200 snaps on EACH side of the ball for my handicapping model to be properly calibrated. That means I won't have any "official" picks until next week. That being said, this is a real-time, opaque experiment in handicapping. I am anxious to get underway so I ran preliminary stats on less than the 200 play threshold just to see what, if anything, they might reveal. Good or bad, I will not be counting these games/picks against my official record for the 2014 season. Consider it a dress rehearsal or a pre-season exhibition scrimmage. There is no team that has played 200 snaps on both sides of the ball yet so I don't sufficient confidence for these to be "official" plays.
That being said, my analytics flagged seven games that look "interesting" Once again the data set is incomplete and several key metrics are absent due to insufficient data. Nonetheless here they are:
Thu, Sep 11 at 9:00 PM EDT
Home - BYU -17.5 over Houston
BYU's veteran squad looked sharp dismantling Texas in Austin a week ago while Houston is rebuilding and trying to establish its "sea legs". Expect the Utah cougars to cover against the Texas cougars.
Sat, Sep 13 at 12:00 PM EDT
Home - Virginia Tech -11 over East Carolina
Virginia Tech has enjoyed much-improved QB play from Texas Tech transfer Connor Brewer thus far. East Carolina is a solid team, but Va Tech looks to be the more consistent team.
Sat, Sep 13 at 12:00 PM EDT
Home - Marshall -19 over Ohio
Marshall has a great QB who is beginning his second year as the starter. The team has played both sharp and consistent behind him thus far. Ohio was awful in 2013 and preliminary indications are that not much has changed.
Sat, Sep 13 at 7:00 PM EDT
Visitor - Texas-San Antonio +13.5 over Oklahoma State
UTSA almost (and probably should have) beat the Arizona Wildcats a week ago. UTSA also gave Okla State a tough game a year ago and many of those lettermen have returned this year. Okla State was impressive in their season debut against Florida State but QB starter JW Walsh broke his ankle during last week's game. Redshirt Frosh Garman will take over. As a result a very solid UTSA squad plus the chalk look good.
Sat, Sep 13 at 7:00 PM EDT
Visitor - Wake Forest +14.5 over Utah State
This is an interesting battle. Both teams are very well-coached but the Demon Deacons have been the more consistent team thus far. Though Wake is on the road, the spread looks "rich". Take the Demon Deacons.
Sat, Sep 13 at 7:30 PM EDT
Home - Notre Dame -28 over Purdue
ND plays Purdue every year prior to playing Michigan State. In the past, how the Irish played Purdue has been foretelling how the rest of the season goes for them. Returning QB Golson is a difference-maker against a bad and inconsistent Boliermaker squad.
Sat, Sep 13 at 7:00 PM EDT
Visitor - UCLA-7.5 over Texas
The Texas defense looked good against North Texas in the opener but QB David Ash suffered yet another concussion, which will probably be career-ending. You would have thought that he was the heart and sould of the defense too given the egg the team laid against BYU last week.
For it's own part UCLA has been underwhelming at best in their first two games, particularly the offensive line. In what shapes up to be a bit of a "Toilet Bowl" between two marquee programs, I think UCLA's "toilet" is a little cleaner. Check UCLA LB Myles Jack status before getting involved as the spread had widened slightly this week.
Normally I won't provide any commentary with the picks but I had some extra time this week. Like I said, these are not official picks. The data they are derived from isn't yet statistically significant so my confidence level isn't high. Nonetheless I was just too curious and wanted to get my feet wet this season. Enjoy the weekend.
More To Come Soon - Jack
