Fourth Pick Week Selections
Oct 9-11 College Football Picks
It was, unfortunately, another horrific week for my college football analytics last week. The higher confidence picks went 2-7 but lost three of those games via backdoor covers. Late, meaningless scores and missed field goals in the Virginia, Michigan State and Washington State games submarined the upper half of pick sheet. The lower confidence picks were also dismal, etching out a 1-4 record for the weekend. In total, the analytics were a pathetic 3-11.
The entire slate of college football outcomes was as whacky as I can ever recall. Eleven of the Top 25 teams were beaten so maybe it should come as no surprise that my handicapping system “sucked.” A .500 record would have likely been a good performance this past weekend. That being said, my own confidence in my analytics has been shaken by the actual results the past two weeks. During testing of the 2013 season, nothing remotely approaching the realized level of ineptitude thus far in 2014 was ever experienced during the 2013 season. As a result I'll re-evaluate after this weekend whether or not it is worth continuing to populate this blog for the rest of the football season.
Nonetheless I will continue for another week before labeling this effort in college football as a failed experiment. Those who are regular readers are probably anticipating this week’s picks as eagerly as a sturdy kick in the nuts but here they come anyway.
Due to some confusion I have separated the picks with positive strainer numbers from the ones with negative strainer numbers. On a year-to-date basis, the picks with negative strainer numbers have done slightly better than those with positive strainer numbers (though that probably isn’t saying much).
Positive strainer number picks/picking the most consistent team
Listed first only because it is a Friday game. It would be the third of four positive strainer picks.
10/10/14 @New Mexico +4.5 San Diego State
10/11/14 LSU -1.5 @Florida
10/11/14 Miami-Ohio +14 @Akron
10/11/14 Bowling Green PK @Ohio
Negative strainer picks/picking the most volatile team
10/11/14 Michigan State -21 @Purdue
10/11/14 East Carolina -15 @South Florida
10/11/14 @Temple -17 Tulsa
10/11/14 Duke +4 @Georgia Tech
10/11/14 Florida Intl +12.5 @Texas-San Antonio
10/11/14 Colorado State -1.5 @Nevada
Year-To-Date ATS
11-20
